'Roar of the Rings' - Men's Draw 6

So after 4 days of curling, and with only two draws to go, we know very little on the men’s side. The only real development from yesterday was that Simmons cut his own throat by dropping a game to Middaugh, eliminating himself. That leaves Howard, Martin, Stoughton, Ferbey and Koe in the race to represent Canada.

It’s still pretty hard to handicap how things will shake down, just because so many of the competing teams play each other today. In fact, aside from Stoughton, who gets Middaugh and Simmons, all the remaining matchups are between playoff eligible teams.

So, with that in mind, rather than previewing each matchup as I have been doing, I’m going to look at the 5 remaining teams, and their playoff scenarios:

Men's Draw 6 - 10:30 AM

Howard (5-0) – Matchups vs. Ferbey and Martin
Howard is in the best position of the 5 playoff eligible teams, having secured at least a tiebreaker. His week can’t end today, and that’s a good spot to be in. However, after playing well all week, I’m sure that Howard has higher goals than limping into a tie-breaker. Today is all about making the finals via the bye for the 1st place finisher.

Howard gets the bye under a couple of scenarios, but really, Howard’s game this morning vs. Ferbey is somewhat inconsequential for his chances. A Howard win over Ferbey is only good enough to clinch if Martin loses. If Martin wins v. Koe, it will set up a game tonight with the bye on the line.

Kevin Martin (4-1) – Matchups vs. Koe and Howard
Martin starts the day one game clear of the tiebreakers, and still with a chance at the first-place bye. If he wins both his games today, he moves right to Sunday’s final. Not too bad!

It will probably be tough for Martin to miss the playoffs, and an win in either game will almost certainly clinch. If Martin goes 0-2 today, he needs at least two of the 3-2 teams to go 1-1 to hold onto a tiebreaker.

Jeff Stoughton (3-2) – Matchups vs. Middaugh and Simmons
Of the 3-2 teams, Jeff Stoughton is probably in the best position. While Ferbey and Koe are slugging it out with themselves, and Howard/Martin…Stoughton gets to stand aside from the mess and play two teams that are already out of the running.

Stoughton moves into the playoffs with two wins today, and he should get them. If he drops one of his two games, he’ll need two of the following three: Martin loses both, Koe loses 1, Ferbey loses 1.

Kevin Koe (3-2) – Matchups vs. Martin and Ferbey
Koe and Ferbey are on pretty much the exact same playing field. They each get one of Martin/Howard this morning, then they play each other tonight. Koe draws Martin this morning, and really needs to find a way to go 2-0 today. 1-1 might be good enough for Koe, but he’ll need a tonne of help.

Randy Ferbey (3-2) – Matchups vs. Howard and Koe
As mentioned, Ferbey has a tough matchup this morning in Howard before getting Koe at night. If both Koe and Ferbey win, or they both lose, that might end up being a game with the winner moving on, and the loser going home.

Crack Prediction:
As much as there are a slew of tiebreak scenarios, I think things are going to sort out cut & dry. I like Howard and Martin to get past Koe/Ferbey this morning, and Stoughton to get past Middaugh. That would set up a scenario tonight where the Martin/Howard game is for first place, where I like Howard, and Stoughton just needing a win over Simmons to join them in the playoffs. Under this scenario, the Ferbey/Koe game would eliminate the loser, and put the winner in the position of needing Stoughton to lose to stay alive.

So…I’m calling Stoughton to the semi-finals against Martin, with Howard straight through to Sunday. No tiebreakers, no fuss, no muss…

Lets see how that pans out…